Evaluating the effects of labour market reforms at the margin on unemployment and employment stability: the Spanish case

This study analyses the effects on unemployment and the quality of employment of the Spanish labour market reform in 2001 for the most important age groups. The content of the reform was based on the implementation of two policies: (i) a new permanent contract with lower firing costs than the ordinary one, and (ii) the reduction of the payroll taxes paid by firms to foster creation/ conversion of/ into permanent contracts. This reform extended to further groups of workers similar measures adopted in a previous reform in 1997. Using a data base of unemployed workers in the region of Madrid from January 1997 up to September 2003, and methods for non-experimental data, the results suggest that, regardless of gender, workers below 30 years are negatively affected by the reform, and workers above 55 years show positive but small effects. The influence of the reform for workers between 45 and 50 years is negligible. As regards education, graduates are more sensitive to the reform than workers with a lower level of education (primary and secondary education)

EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF LABOUR MARKET REFORMS “AT THE MARGIN” ON UNEMPLOYMENT AND EMPLOYMENT STABILITY: THE SPANISH CASE

This study analyses the effects on unemployment and the quality of employment of the Spanish labour market reform in 2001 for the most important age groups. The content of the reform was based on the implementation of two policies: (i) a new permanent contract with lower firing costs than the ordinary one, and (ii) the reduction of the payroll taxes paid by firms to foster creation/ conversion of/ into permanent contracts. This reform extended to further groups of workers similar measures adopted in a previous reform in 1997. Using a data base of unemployed workers in the region of Madrid from January 1997 up to September 2003, and methods for non-experimental data, the results suggest that, regardless of gender, workers below 30 years are negatively affected by the reform, and workers above 55 years show positive but small effects. The influence of the reform for workers between 45 and 50 years is negligible. As regards education, graduates are more sensitive to the reform than workers with a lower level of education (primary and secondary education).

Evaluating the effects of labour market reforms at the margin on unemployment and employment stability: the Spanish case.

This study analyses the effects on unemployment and the quality of employment of the Spanish labour market reform in 2001 for the most important age groups. The content of the reform was based on the implementation of two policies: (i) a new permanent contract with lower firing costs than the ordinary one, and (ii) the reduction of the payroll taxes paid by firms to foster creation/ conversion of/ into permanent contracts. This reform extended to further groups of workers similar measures adopted in a previous reform in 1997. Using a data base of unemployed workers in the region of Madrid from January 1997 up to September 2003, and methods for non-experimental data, the results suggest that, regardless of gender, workers below 30 years are negatively affected by the reform, and workers above 55 years show positive but small effects. The influence of the reform for workers between 45 and 50 years is negligible. As regards education, graduates are more sensitive to the reform than workers with a lower level of education (primary and secondary education).

The ACD Model: Predictability of the Time Between Concecutive Trades

Forecasting ability of several parameterizations of ACD models are compared to benchmark linear autoregressions for inter-trade durations. The estimation of parametric ACD models requires both the choice of a conditional density for durations and the specification of a functional form for the conditional mean duration. Our results provide guidance for choosing among different parameterizations and for developing better forecasting models to predict one-step-ahead, multi-step-ahead, and the whole density of time durations. For evaluating density forecasts, we propose a new constructive test, which is based on the series of probability integral transforms. The choice of the conditional distribution for inter-trade durations does not seem to affect the out-of sample performances of the ACD at short, as well as longer, horizons. Yet, this choice becomes critical when forecasting the density.

Input variable selection for forecasting models

2002 IFAC15th Triennial World Congress, Barcelona, SpainThe selection of input variables plays a crucial role when modelling time series. For nonlinear models there are not well developed techniques such as AIC and other criteria that work with linear models. In the case of Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) generalization is greatly influenced by such selection. In this paper two approaches are compared using real data from a Spanish utility company. The models used are neural networks although the algorithms can be used with other nonlinear models. The experiments show that that input variable selection affects the performance of forecasting models and thus should be treated as a generalization problem

A new concept of invariance for saturated systems

In this paper, a new concept of invariance for saturated linear systems is presented. This new notion of invariance, denoted SNS-invariance, has a number of geometrical properties that makes its use suitable for the estimation of the domain of attraction of saturated systems. The notion of SNS-domain of attraction, that serves as an estimation of the domain of attraction of a saturated system, is introduced. It is shown that, in case of single input saturated systems, any contractive set is contained in the SNS-domain of attraction. A simple algorithm that converges to the SNS-domain of attraction is presented. Some illustrative examples are given

Do training programmes get the unemployedback to work?: a look at the Spanish experience

This study analyzes the effect of some training courses for economic disadvantaged unemployed workers elaborated by the Spanish Department of Employment (INEM) on exit rate from unemployment. Two groups of Spanish unemployed workers are compared between April 2000 and February 2001, one of them did training courses in the first quarter of 2000. Non-parametric techniques, parametric and semi-parametric continuous time duration methods are used to analyze this relationship. The results suggest a higher positive effect of some training courses for women than for men, especially with medium level courses. The lower the age and the period of active labour demand are, the higher exit rate to a job is. However, education and disabilities do not affect significantly the exit rate to employment